December 2024 Market Update

State of Worldwide Supply Chain 

 Ocean freight rates continue to fluctuate, but have decreased since peak market rates during the summer. 

Factories in China will be closing for several weeks for Chinese New Year, which is on January 29, 2025 (Year of the Snake), so vessel space will remain tight. Potential new tariffs and the possibility for another Longshoreman’s strike in January on the East and Gulf Coast ports also will affect freight rates. 

Regarding potential tariffs, it remains unclear whether they will go into effect, the timing if they do, the amounts from each country, and whether or not they will include food products. 

 

Mandarin Oranges 

The Mandarin orange harvest is underway in China. Heavy rains have impacted the growing season, and estimates forecast that the harvest will be smaller than last year’s strong output.  It is reported that the overall quality of the fruit is poor.   

Given the circumstances, the harvest is expected to be completed before the end of the year, whereas it typically lasts through January. 

Pineapple 

The pineapple market is firm and will remain so through Q2 2025. Drought conditions in 2023/2024 have significantly impacted the global pineapple harvests. 

Thailand’s current harvest was delayed and may struggle to meet volume targets. Reports state that the fruit is undersized. Indonesia’s raw material is not forecast to rebound until at least Q2 2025. 

Crushed pineapple is the least affected, being a by-product of the main cuts of pineapple.  Indonesia, the Philippines, and Costa Rica are by far the largest growers of pineapple, where Costa Rica’s crop is typically for the fresh market. 

Ripe Olives 

Egypt is seeing a smaller harvest, while Turkey and Greece are experiencing a better yield. However, Turkey and Greece’s production will not meet global demand as their total plantation area does not support worldwide demand. 

In Spain and Morocco, harvests are ending this month, with yields better than last year but still below historical averages. The market remains firm.  Spanish Ripe Olives are more expensive than other producing countries. 

Olives that are not suitable for ‘table’ black or green olives, are used for crushing into olive oil.  Olive oil pricing is expected to soften in the coming months. 

Quinoa 

The market for conventional and organic quinoa is firm, with 2024 having a smaller harvest than anticipated.  Additionally, limited carryover from 2023 into 2024 and strong export demand (increase of 14% versus last year) have strengthened the market. Main exporting countries are Peru, which makes up about 70% of worldwide production, followed by Boliva and Ecuador. 

Expectations are the market will remain firm at least through Q1 before the new season starts.